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GG Riva

Will we stay or will we go?

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With apologies to the Clash. ☺

As I see it, we have 3 options in relation to the Brexit fiasco :-

1. Leave with a deal
2. Leave without a deal
3. Forget the whole thing and revoke Article 50.

Eeeny, meeny, miny, mo......

Are the bookies offering odds? Not that they were much use in June 2016. You could have got 8/1 against the Leave vote winning, the day before the Referendum.
If you had a free £100 bet, which option would you lump it on?

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Option 3 now after seeing Saturday's march compared to Farage's 200 strong zealot crusade.

 

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Hopefully option 2. Maybe it'll open up more eyes to the way the UK has been governed for years now and that it's set up to benefit the few, rather than the many.

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3 hours ago, GG Riva said:

With apologies to the Clash. ☺

As I see it, we have 3 options in relation to the Brexit fiasco :-

1. Leave with a deal
2. Leave without a deal
3. Forget the whole thing and revoke Article 50.

Eeeny, meeny, miny, mo......

Are the bookies offering odds? Not that they were much use in June 2016. You could have got 8/1 against the Leave vote winning, the day before the Referendum.
If you had a free £100 bet, which option would you lump it on?

Of the 3 I think 1 is least likely. May will never get her deal through parliament as it is, and the EU aren't going to give us any more concessions (cf "It'll be easy", "We hold all the cards", etc, etc)

2 definitely could happen simply by nobody managing to put something together that enough will agree on and time running out.

3 is also possible, but unilateral revocation doesn't seem that likely to me.

What I think will happen is this: May, knowing her deal has no chance without a major shift, will also know that if she loses she will have to quit. I think she likes being in charge, and so she'll take one final gamble and acquiesce to Labour's suggestion that they will support her deal in parliament on the condition of a second referendum.

The ERG will lose their collective sh*t, but Bercow will allow it to take place due to a substantial change, the EU will agree to a long enough extension with some fudge on the European elections, the deal will pass parliament with a majority of about 100-150, there'll be a second referendum with deal, no deal and remain on the paper and remain will take about 52% of the vote leading eventually to the same outcome as option 3.

If they do have another referendum, they need to make sure that it's legally binding this time and that it uses a transferable vote system. Otherwise we potentially end up with a remain 48%, leave (deal) 39%, leave (no deal) 13%, scenario, with remain winning despite having less than half the votes.

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''If they do have another referendum, they need to make sure that it's legally binding this time...''

You have to wonder as to why the Government spent £millions in organising a referendum whose result was only advisory and could therefore still end up being ignored.

So much for democracy...........

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2 hours ago, SanguinePar said:

If they do have another referendum, they need to make sure that it's legally binding this time 

Can you imagine the fall out if "Remain" won?  Without the option of "Leave" to appeal that?  

I realise that its a big issue, but its turning into a playground fight where spoilt bairns are running to the teacher to get their own way. 

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2 hours ago, Vinnie said:

Can you imagine the fall out if "Remain" won?  Without the option of "Leave" to appeal that?  

I realise that its a big issue, but its turning into a playground fight where spoilt bairns are running to the teacher to get their own way. 

Sorry, but despite how often that is repeated it is still bollocks. It is a massive one off decision being made on the back of a narrowly won poll, used as protest vote by many. If there is a huge desire to quit the EU then they will win in the end even if this referendum is overturned. I don’t think there is an overwhelming desire to quit however.

We have parliamentary democracy for a reason- although admittedly it is in need of reform.

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9 minutes ago, Teuchter said:

It is a massive one off decision being made on the back of a narrowly won poll, used as protest vote by many.

Whether or not its a protest vote is conjecture, no?  And regardless of how narrowly the vote was won, it was won by "Leave". 

Regardless of your political belief, you cant try and revise the rules when youve lost.  Im sure I have said before, any caveats should have been set before the vote, not asked for as an afterthought as a reason to reverse a result you dont like.  

11 minutes ago, Teuchter said:

I don’t think there is an overwhelming desire to quit however.

Not in Scotland, but elsewhere across the UK I think you underestimate the level of support.  When folk are unhappy about something they protest and when folk protest they make a lot of noise - the Leavers won, they are happy, they dont need to make noise.  

13 minutes ago, Teuchter said:

We have parliamentary democracy for a reason- although admittedly it is in need of reform.

I agree, major reform is needed. 

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1 hour ago, Vinnie said:

Whether or not its a protest vote is conjecture, no?  And regardless of how narrowly the vote was won, it was won by "Leave". 

You talk like it is a football game and not a future altering decision of a huge magnitude.

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25 minutes ago, Teuchter said:

You talk like it is a football game and not a future altering decision of a huge magnitude.

Not at all.  But its black or white, win or lose, leave or stay.

Its not lets argue and temper tantrum til we get a result that we want.

At what point do you say enoughs enough?  If the result is reversed do we debate it til there is another vote?  And then do we get another vote and go best of three or best of five?

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1 hour ago, Vinnie said:

Not at all.  But its black or white, win or lose, leave or stay.

Its not lets argue and temper tantrum til we get a result that we want.

At what point do you say enoughs enough?  If the result is reversed do we debate it til there is another vote?  And then do we get another vote and go best of three or best of five?

They could do worse than take a leaf out of the Scottish devolution referendum campaign who built a genuine consensus for their goal after having a narrow victory, de facto, ignored.

UKIP achieved their goal of gaining a referendum by threatening a few Tory marginals.

See the difference?

Sadly, a movement that features mocked up gallows in its’ marches is unlikely to care much about consensus building.

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To get back to the OP, it's anyone's guess at the moment. May keeps banging her head against a brick wall. When will she finally twig that the vast majority of MPs have no intention of supporting it? So Option 1 appears to be dead in the water. 

Most MPs are also  opposed to leaving without a deal, so where does that leave us?

We might well leave at some point, but I can't see it being any time soon. 

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13 hours ago, Vinnie said:

Its not lets argue and temper tantrum til we get a result that we want.

Funny, I read coverage on the Remain March on Saturday by a couple of committed leavers. They commented on the good nature of it.

Meanwhile the pensioner who started the revoke Article 50 is receiving death threats, angry yellow jacketed men are shouting insults daily outside Parliament and Question Time is not complete without  an angry red faced middle aged man with high blood pressure ranting about leaving.

As far as I know, the Remain side have not threatened street violence in the event of leaving the EU.

Who exactly is throwing the tantrums?

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